Gambling Spreads Football

The theory with point spreads is that a wager on either team to win a football game is as close to a 505/50 shot as possible. You’re not actually betting on which team will win the game, you’re betting on which team will “cover the spread”.

There are several different types of football wager you can place,
and two of them are significantly more popular than the others.
The most popular of all is the point spread wager, followed by
the totals wager. In this article, we’re focusing on the point
spread.

Before you continue reading, if you’re interested, we have put together a short video to help you better understand point spreads.

Compare NFL odds & betting lines Dec 15 to find the best Football moneyline, spread, and Over/Under totals odds from online sportsbooks. Of course, if you are new to college football betting, or sports betting in general, you first need to understand what you are looking at in terms of NCAAF spreads, moneylines and point totals. NCAAF Betting Glossary & Tips. Spread – The most popular way to bet on college football is by picking a team against the spread (ATS). You will either.

If you have any interest at all in betting on football, then you
really should know how to bet the point spread effectively. It’s not
necessarily the “best” type of wager in terms of the potential for
winning money, but it’s relatively simple and does present some
profitable opportunities if you know what you’re doing.

On this page we teach you the basics of betting football point spreads. We explain how they work, and why
they’re so popular. We also explain the challenges involved in making money from them. Finally, we offer
some tips and strategy advice for placing wagers of this type.

Football Point Spreads: How They Work

The theory with point spreads is that a wager on either team to win a football game is as close to a 505/50
shot as possible. You’re not actually betting on which team will win the game, you’re betting on which team
will “cover the spread”. The favorite has to win by at least a certain number of points for a wager on them to
be successful, and the underdog has to lose by less than the same number of points for a wager on them to
be successful.

Another way to view it is that, for the purposes of the betting, the favorite has points deducted from their
score and the underdog has points added to their final score. The number of points varies, depending on the
gap in quality between two teams. If one team is much stronger than the other, the number of points can be
quite high (a big spread). If the two teams are more evenly matched, the number of points is low (a small
spread).

Here’s an example of a point spread that a bookmaker or betting site might offer for a football game
between the Pittsburgh Steelers and the Denver Bronco.

The +6 for the Steelers means that they’ll have six points effectively added to their score. They’re the
underdog here. The -6 for the Broncos means that they’ll have six points effectively deducted from their
score, as they’re the favorite. You can choose to bet on the Steelers with their points advantage, or on the
Broncos with their points deduction. The following outcomes are possible.

• A wager on the Steelers pays out if they win the game, or lose by less than six points
• A wager on the Steelers loses if they lose by more than six points
• A wager on the Broncos pays out if the win the game by more than six points
• A wager on the Broncos loses if they lose the game, or win by less than six points
• All wagers would push (stake gets returned) if the Broncos win by exactly six points

That, in essence, is all there is to betting football point spreads. All successful wagers are paid out at the
relevant odds, which are typically -110. The odds can vary, but they’re almost always fairly close to even
money. One further thing we should mention is that spreads will often include half a point. So, for example,
you might see a team at +6.5. This makes a push impossible.

Why Football Point Spreads Are Popular

It’s difficult to say for sure why point spreads are so popular, but there are probably a number of reasons. We
suspect that the following are the most relevant for the majority of bettors.

1. Betting on even money propositions is appealing
2. Point spreads are very simple
3. Point spreads make betting on “lopsided” games more interesting
4. The perception is that it’s easy to make money from point spreads

The first reason listed here applies primarily to recreational bettors. Those who are serious about their
betting don’t really care what the odds are per se, they are primarily concerned with whether value exists or
not. And value can exist in both heavy favorites and complete outsiders in the right circumstances. For those
that bet just for fun, though, the concept of value is largely an irrelevance. They just want to know that they
have a fair chance of winning their wagers, and that’s exactly what point spreads offer. Even if you just picked
teams at random you could expect to win close to 50% of your wagers over the long run.

The second reason is also an appealing one for recreational bettors. Although most of them do want to win
money, of course, they’re not generally bothered about having to think too much about their betting. It’s all
about the fun, and so wagers that are nice and simple are ideal for them. Point spreads are an easy way to
throw a few bucks on a game, without having to put in a great deal of effort.

Sports Betting Football Spread

Making lopsided games more interesting is a clear advantage of the point spread, to all types of bettors.
Without this type of wager, there would rarely be much fun or value in betting on games where there is a
very clear favorite. Backing the favorite would offer very low odds, to the extent that it probably wouldn’t be
worth it, and the underdog would be so unlikely to win that there’d be no point in backing them either.

The final reason mentioned here is actually not a good reason to bet football point spreads at all. Many
people do believe it’s a relatively easy way to make money, but the reality is that it is not. We’ll now explain
why.

The Challenge of Football Point Spreads

Seeing as we’ve said that you have a roughly 50% chance of winning a point spread wager even if picking a
team at random, you could be forgiven for thinking that with even a little bit of knowledge you should be able
to make money from this type of wager. You may well be able to, but it’s certainly not easy. There are two
main reasons for this.

1. Bookmakers charge vig
2. Bookmakers are very good at what they do

Nfl Gambling Spreads

If you’re not familiar with vig, please read our article on how bookmakers make money. Very briefly though,
vig is basically a commission that bookmakers charge. It’s effectively built into the odds, which is why point
spread wagers typically are at odds of around -110. You’ve got to risk $110 to win $100, which means you
have to win more than half of your wagers just to break even.

And winning more than your half of your wagers is tough, because the bookmakers are generally very
accurate when setting their lines. The spreads they publish are consistently very close to reflecting what
actually happens in games. This makes it very difficult to regularly predict which team is going to cover the
spread in a game.It’s certainly rare that you’ll see games where the outcome is obvious enough that you can
genuinely state with real confidence that one or the other team is going to cover.

Tips & Strategy Advice

There is an argument to say that there is little strategy involved in betting football point spreads these days.
This is primarily because of what we’ve outlined above, in that the lines are set so tightly by bookmakers that
football point spreads are basically coin flips. However, our view is that they can be profitable with the right
approach.

For one thing, bookmakers are not infallible. Although they’re very good at what they do, they still get it
wrong from time to time. And, even when they don’t, it’s still possible to get a high enough win percentage to
effectively “beat the vig”. It’s not easy, but it can be done.

We round off this article with some tips and strategy advice that may help you to get better results when
betting football point spreads.

Learn how to handicap football games

This advice applies to virtually any form of football betting really. If you’re going to make money, then you
need to need to understand what’s involved in handicapping football games.A lot of bettors don’t bother to
learn about handicapping, often simply because they believe it’s really complicated. It’s not. There are some
complicated aspects to it, yes, but the fundamental concept is relatively straightforward.

In fact, there’s a very good chance that you’re already handicapping games without even realizing it.
Handicapping doesn’t have to involve using amazingly advanced scientific systems, it can be as simple as
taking into account a few factors that are likely to affect the outcome of a game and then working out where
the value lies. There’s obviously a bit more to it than that, but that’s basically what it’s about.

Please take the time to read our article explaining how to handicap football. We can almost guarantee
that it will teach you at least some aspects of football betting that you’re not aware of.

Ignore a team’s ATS record

Statistics can be very valuable when betting football spreads. There are certain statistics in particular that
canreally help you compare two teams and make informed judgements about how they are likely to perform
against each other. However, there are other stats that are relatively useless. This doesn’t stop some bettors
relying on them though.

One such stat is a team’s ATS (against the spread) record. This basically refers to a team’s performance
against the lines set by the bookmakers, rather than their actual results. Let’s look at some hypothetical data
to explain this further. Here’s a team’s results of the first six games of the regular season, along with their
spread for each of those games.

In the first game, the team was -3 on the spread, so technically “should” have won by three points. It lost, so
it failed to cover the spread. It won the next game, but only by five points when it was -6 on the spread. So,
again, it failed to cover the spread. In the following game it won by 12 when -7 on the spread, so it did cover
the spread here. In the following three games it failed to cover the spread again, despite winning two of them.

Now, a lot of bettors would read a lot into this. The team has only covered the spread once in six games,
despite a record of 4-2 on the field. The seemingly obvious conclusion here is that backing this team on the
spread is a bad idea. This is not necessarily true though, for one simple reason.

That’s right. The ATS data for a team is one of those instances where the numbers really do lie. The fact that
a team has been failing to cover the spread for the majority of its games means absolutely nothing in terms
of how likely it is cover to the spread in the future.

You’ll hear advice contrary to this, but please ignore it. Relying on ATS data to make future predictions is a
big mistake.

Don’t bet on every game

There is pretty much a 0% chance that you’ll be able to maintain a good win rate if you bet the spreads on
every single football game. Being selective is absolutely vital if you want to win consistently. The more games
you bet on, the harder you’ll find it to maintain a high enough win percentage. And your win percentage is
everything when it comes to betting football spreads. As we’ve already stated, you’ll mostly be betting at
around -110 and will need to win above 50% of your picks just to overcome the vig.

Trying to win a ton of bets each and every week is a recipe for failure. You need to be patient and wait for
the right opportunities. Unless you are an absolute genius (in which case you don’t need our help anyway),
at best you’ll find just a handful of games where there’s a good reason to bet the spread. There will likely be
some weeks where there are no good spots at all, and there’s absolutely nothing wrong with saving your
money and waiting for better opportunities.

There are certain types of games that you should generally try to avoid too. These are as follows.

• Games between very closely matched opponents
• Games involving “hyped” teams or especially popular teams
• Games with double digit spreads (i.e. a spread of 10 or more)

Please note that we’re not saying you should NEVER bet the spread in games falling into the above
categories. Just be cautious of them. Games between very closely matched opponents are notoriously difficult
to predict, and games involving hyped or popular teams often have very misleading lines. Games with
double digit spreads are risky because there’s always a chance that the favorite will coast through a game
once they’ve all but secured the win. They may be easily capable of winning by ten or more points, but that
doesn’t mean they’re going to give it their all to do so.

Think outside the NFL

Many bettors focus solely on the NFL, and this is basically making things a lot harder than they need to be.
Finding value on NFL games is very difficult, due to the tight lines mentioned earlier, and when there is value
it doesn’t tend to last very long. This is because there are so many people looking for the right spots. As soon
as a bookmaker or betting publishes an attractive line, sharp bettors will be on it almost immediately. The
line will then be moved accordingly, and the value will disappear.

There is regularly more value to be had in college football and even the Canadian Football League, as the
bookmakers are not generally quite as expert on those games. This means there’s more opportunities to
find good spots. The fact that there are less people betting also means that those good spots don’t tend to
disappear quite so quickly.

Please note that we’re not saying it’s easy to win money betting on college football and the CFL. We’re just
saying that there’s certainly an argument that it’s not as hard as the NFL. You’ll need to make sure you know
as much as possible about the relevant teams and players though. That’s where you can potentially gain an
edge over the bookmakers.

Consider betting teasers

Many bettors focus solely on the NFL, and this is basically making things a lot harder than they need to be.
Finding value on NFL games is very difficult, due to the tight lines mentioned earlier, and when there is value
it doesn’t tend to last very long. This is because there are so many people looking for the right spots. As soon
as a bookmaker or betting publishes an attractive line, sharp bettors will be on it almost immediately. The
line will then be moved accordingly, and the value will disappear.

There is regularly more value to be had in college football and even the Canadian Football League, as the
bookmakers are not generally quite as expert on those games. This means there’s more opportunities to
find good spots. The fact that there are less people betting also means that those good spots don’t tend to
disappear quite so quickly.

You can find more detailed strategy advice for this type of wager in our articles on NFL teasers and college
football teasers.

Shop around

Many bettors focus solely on the NFL, and this is basically making things a lot harder than they need to be.
Finding value on NFL games is very difficult, due to the tight lines mentioned earlier, and when there is value
it doesn’t tend to last very long. This is because there are so many people looking for the right spots. As soon
as a bookmaker or betting publishes an attractive line, sharp bettors will be on it almost immediately. The
line will then be moved accordingly, and the value will disappear.

There is regularly more value to be had in college football and even the Canadian Football League, as the
bookmakers are not generally quite as expert on those games. This means there’s more opportunities to
find good spots. The fact that there are less people betting also means that those good spots don’t tend to
disappear quite so quickly.

There are three primary reasons why so many people bet on football in the US. The first is simply that they love the sport and enjoy testing their knowledge by taking on the bookmakers.

The second is the fact that betting offers the chance to win some money from that knowledge.

The third is that it doesn’t have to be at all complicated. There are some really simple ways to bet on football without having to learn too much.

Out of all the different wagers that can be placed on football games, there are two in particular that are incredibly simple. These are point spreads and totals, and they are by far the most popular football bets.

Football Gambling Spreads

In fact, the majority of people who bet on football exclusively use these two wagers.

If you’re new to betting on football, then these should be the first two wagers you learn about. With that in mind, this page will teach you everything you need to know concerning how they work.

We’ve also explained two specific techniques you can use to improve your chances of winning money from these bets: buying points and line shopping.

Football Point Spreads

Point spreads are popular wagers on a number of US sports: football and basketball in particular. The basic idea with these is that they are as close as possible to being even money propositions.

This means that, regardless of how strong each team is, a wager on either team has roughly the same chance of winning.

How is this possible? Well, the purpose of a point spread is to essentially level the playing field by making theoretical point adjustments to each team’s final score. For the purposes of betting, stronger teams are deducted points and weaker teams are awarded additional points. This might sound a little confusing at first, but the concept is actually a rather simple one.

Here’s an example of how a point spread betting market might look for a football game.

The -110 next to each team are the odds. Although they’re not always -110, these are the standard odds for a point spread. They can be a little higher or a little lower, but they’re always pretty close to -110. They’re also usually very similar for each team.

As they do for any wager, the odds here determine how much a winning wager returns relative to the stake. In this case, a wager of $110 would return a total of $210. This is made up of $100 profit plus the original stake.

You may know all this already, but it’s important for us to explain odds and how they work for anyone that’s completely new to betting.

The other numbers you’ll have noticed are the -3 for the Steelers and the +3 for the Bengals. These numbers are what represent the spread. We can tell from this that the Steelers are the favorites for this game, as the minus symbol represents the fact that they’re effectively being deducted points.

The Bengals are the underdogs, as they’re effectively being awarded points. Please note, these point adjustments were designed for betting purposes only, and they in no way influence the outcome of the game.

In this case, the bookmaker has predicted that the Steelers should win the game by around three points. To place a wager, you have to decide whether they will win by more than that total. If you think they will, you’d back them on this spread. If you think that they’ll lose the game, or win by less than three points, you’d back the Bengals on this spread.

Let’s now look at a couple of hypothetical results for this game.

The Steelers have won the game here, but only by two points. Anyone who bet the Steelers on the spread would have lost. This is because they failed to win by more than the three point spread. If you’d have bet on the Bengals on the spread, you’d have won.

Despite losing the game, they were within the three points allowed. This is known as “covering the spread”. Please note that if the Steelers had won by exactly three points, a wager on either team would be a push. This is basically a tie between you and the bookmaker that results in the return of your initial stake.

With this result, the Steelers have again won. This time, though, they’ve won by more than the required three points. Since the Steelers have covered the spread here, a point spread wager on them at -3 would win. A point spread wager on the Bengals at +3 would lose.

Here are two more examples of point spread betting markets for football games. These highlight how spreads are different for different games, and also how the odds can differ as we mentioned earlier.

Now, you might be thinking that it’s easy to back the right teams on the point spread. However, you would be wrong. Quite the opposite is true in fact, as it’s actually quite hard.

This is because the people setting these spreads (i.e. the bookmakers and their staff) are very skilled at predicting the likely outcome of games. They consistently set spreads which reflect the actual winning margins of games.

Sure they get it wrong sometimes, but they’re very close most of the time. For anyone who thinks they can make better predictions, all we can say is good luck.

The great thing about betting point spreads is that you don’t necessarily need to be better than the bookmakers. This is because you don’t have to make accurate predictions for every game. You only have to be able to identify the situations where you think a team is more likely to cover the spread than not.

It’s not quite that simple of course, but that’s the basic idea of betting point spreads successfully.

Totals are arguably the simplest wager of all. With these, you’re trying to predict whether the total number of points scored in a football game will be higher or lower than a specified number. This specified number is set by a bookmaker or betting site for each game, in the same way they set the point spread.

Here’s an example of a totals betting market, for the same game we looked at earlier.

As you can see, the odds are again -110. The same principles we discussed concerning how the odds relate to point spreads apply to totals too.

The other relevant number here is 40. This is what the bookmaker offering this market has predicted the combined total of the two team’s scores will be. You have to predict whether you think the actual score will be higher or lower than 40. If you think higher, bet the over. If you think lower, bet the under.

Let’s now look at the same two hypothetical results as earlier.

The total here is 34 (18 + 16). So it’s gone under the bookmaker’s prediction. Those who bet the under would have won. Those who bet the over would have lost. Please note that had the total been exactly 40, it would have been a push. This means that your initial stake would be returned, no matter which bet you placed.

This results gives us a total of 50 (27+23), which is over the bookmaker’s prediction. A bet on the under would have lost while a bet on the over would have won.

That’s all there is to football totals, so you can see why they’re considered such a straightforward wager. Making money from them is less straightforward though, as it’s not at all easy to predict how many points will be scored in a game of football.

Indeed, there are some people that say betting totals is basically just guesswork.

This isn’t true at all though. There are several strategies and techniques you can use to make informed judgments regarding totals. None of them are foolproof, but they can certainly assist you at finding good opportunities to make these bets.

The aim when betting on football is to find the best possible value when placing wagers. That is, in fact, the aim when betting on any sport.

Finding this value typically involves analyzing a wide range of factors that can affect the outcome of sports events, assessing the potential effects of those factors, and then trying to make accurate predictions about how likely any given outcome is.

This is certainly something you need to do when betting on football if you’re going to have a chance of long-term success. It’s also beneficial to know some other techniques that can help with finding value. One of these is buying points, which is a technique that can be used for both point spreads and totals.

The basic idea with these is that you can adjust the size of a point spread, or the relevant total, to give yourself a better chance of placing a correct wager. In exchange for such an adjustment, the relevant odds are also adjusted.

For example, let’s say you’re looking at a game where the underdog is +4.5 with odds of -105. You’re fairly sure they’re going to cover, but the margin is a little too tight for you. You decide that you’d be more comfortable with a slightly bigger spread, so you buy a point. Buying this point has the following effect.

• Spread moves up to +5.5
• Odds move down to -125

Now in order to win, the team you’ve selected can now lose by five points, whereas before they could only lose by four points. You’ve given yourself an improved chance of winning, and taken lower odds in return.

Typically, the effect of each half point you buy is a 10 point move in the odds. For some spreads, however, the move is greater. This is generally the case when moving spreads off of +/- 7 or +/- 3, as these are very common winning margins. As an example, let’s say you bought half a point on a team at -3 and -115.

This only gives you a very slight advantage. You previously needed your selection to win by more than three points, while exactly a three-point winning margin would result in a push. Now, winning by three points would be enough for your wager to win.

You’ve made a big sacrifice on the odds though, as they’ve moved from -115 to -135. It’s therefore questionable whether this would be the right thing to do.

Many experts suggest that buying points favors the bookmakers far more than the bettors. There’s an argument for this for sure. However, we believe that it can be the right thing to do in some circumstances. We explain why in our article on buying points when football betting.

The Importance of Line Shopping

While the benefits of buying points may be debatable, the benefits of line shopping are most certainly not. This is something that every football bettor should do for every wager that they place, even for those who bet exclusively for recreational purposes.

Why? Because it can make a major difference to how much a bettor wins or loses over time.

Line shopping is super easy to do. It involves simply looking at the odds and lines offered by different bookmakers and betting sites and then placing your wager where the best value is available.

Take a look at the following table for an example of why this is a good idea. It shows the markets at three different betting sites for the same game.

• Cincinnati (+3)-120
• Cincinnati (+3)-118
• Cincinnati (+3)-115

Let’s say you want to back the Bengals to cover. If you used “Betting Site A”, you’d have to risk $120 for the chance of winning $100. At “Site B”, you’d only need to risk $118 for the same potential win. At “Site C”, the required stake is just $115.

Not a big difference you might be thinking, but these kinds of differences over a lot of wagers can have a substantial impact on your overall profits (or losses).

Here’s another table showing different lines for another match.

• Minnesota (+5)-115
• Minnesota (+4)-110
• Minnesota (+6)-110

In this case, it’s not so much the different odds that you’re looking at but the different spreads. If you expected Seattle to cover, would you prefer to take them at -4 or -6? Obviously, you’ve got a much better chance at -4, so shopping around in this instance would give you a more favorable wager.

It’s not just point spread lines that vary either. The same thing applies to totals lines.

• Under 45.5-110
• Under 45-105
• Under 45-103

By shopping around for the best wagers, you gain a slight advantage in terms of either the total you’re betting against or the odds you’re receiving.

With the ease that online betting offers these days, there’s simply no excuse not to shop for the best odds and lines. All you need are accounts at a few different football betting sites, and then the willingness to spend time comparing their markets each time you bet.

Just make sure that you only use reputable sites, such as the ones that we recommend.

BEST FOOTBALL BETTING SITES